Bitcoin spent the week grinding between $108K–$114K after a failed push above resistance, with traders split on whether we’re coiling for a rebound or sliding toward a deeper retest. Under the hood, positioning is heavy, whales are active on both sides, and macro cross-winds matter more than usual.

What’s Moving Price Right Now

1) A big whale leaned short—again.

On-chain sleuths flagged a ~$235M leveraged short initiated near $111.2K, reportedly the same wallet that profited ~$200M on the drop to $100K earlier. It’s a clear hedge against another leg lower amid tariff chatter and the U.S. government shutdown overhang (Yahoo/99Bitcoins brief).

2) Cross-asset shock spilled into crypto.

A sharp gold selloff (-5–6%) spiked BTC’s correlation toward ~0.85, dragging Bitcoin lower as risk-off waves hit broad markets (TradingNews brief).

3) Leverage is loaded; the range is tight.

Aggregate open interest ~ $69.6B sits near YTD highs while spot compresses—classic pre-breakout tinder without a clear direction yet (TradingNews).

The Map: Levels & Structures That Matter

  • Resistance ladder: $111,934 → $114,686 → $117,433 → $121,345

  • Must-reclaim pivot: 200-day EMA ≈ $113.5K; sustained closes > $113.5K & > $115K shift momentum constructive.

  • Support ladder: $108K → $106K → $103,046; a loss of $106K increases odds of a $100K probe (TradingNews).

  • Liquidation clusters: Dense pockets above $112–114K (squeeze shorts) and below $106K (trip leveraged longs).

  • Momentum tells: Daily RSI ~40 and weaker bounces = buyer fatigue; STH SOPR < 1 signals “sell-the-bounce” behavior (TradingNews).

Flows & Positioning

  • Whales & cohorts: Newer BTC whales sit on ~$6.95B unrealized losses as price slipped below their ~$113Kcost basis (Yahoo/99Bitcoins).

  • Exchange balances: Net outflows persist (modest but steady), thinning near-term sell supply (TradingNews).

  • ETF flows: Mixed to slightly negative in recent sessions; still, structural demand from custody withdrawals remains supportive at the margins (TradingNews).

Scenarios (Next 1–2 Weeks)

Bullish path:

  • 4H/D closes > $113.5K, follow-through > $115K with rising spot volume.

  • Watch SOPR (30DMA) ≥ 1, correlation to gold cooling back toward neutral.

  • Targets: $117.4K → $121.3K → $125K (TradingNews).

Bearish path:

  • Lose $108K, then $106K on follow-through; liquidation cascade risks $103K with a round-number magnet at $100K.

  • Elevated OI + risk-off macro keeps rallies capped until pivots are reclaimed.

How to Navigate This as a Cointiply Earner

  • Respect the lines. The market is mechanical right now: $108K support vs. $113.5–115K resistance.

  • Use chop to your advantage. In range conditions, consistent earning (PTC ads, surveys, offers) compounds while others overtrade.

  • Keep optionality. If we pop through $115K, having dry powder (or a steady coin stack) lets you lean into strength. If we slip, your daily earnings buy more BTC per coin.

TL;DR

  • BTC is chopping $108K–$114K with $69.6B OI—coiled and catalyst-sensitive.

  • A returning whale shorted ~$235M; gold’s mini-crash added pressure.

  • Reclaim $113.5–115K to open $117–125K; lose $106K risks $103K → $100K.

  • In the meantime, steady Cointiply earnings are your edge while the market decides.